PSD, I don’t share this view, or alternately I would say it is a gross oversimplification. Similarly the butterfly effect is a grossly oversimplified romantic notion.

Reality is that us humans make billions of decisions each second, some governed by genetic programming, some by survival instinct, some by the laws of the physical universe, some truly random. And future outcomes, taking the example of a potential air disaster, are the combined result of a billion such decisions taken by countless humans, which determine how much caffeine went into the pilot’s morning coffee, how tightly each bolt was tightened on the aircraft by the last maintenance crew, the level of mental alertness of dozens of traffic controllers along the flight path, not to mention randomness in weather patterns and migratory bird routes.

Some of these billions of decisions will have happened by the time you fall asleep the night before, some not yet. To suggest that the outcome can be predicted in a semi-lucid dreamy state any better than by our most advanced statistical forecast models is ludicrous. But it makes for great romantic fiction.

Cheers, Joe

cc Jack